Donald Trump’s slight polling edge over Kamala Harris in battleground North Carolina is nearly up to a point in one aggregate and is one-half point in another.
Friday afternoon averages from Project 538 and RealClear Polling, respectively, had the former Republican president with leads of 48.2%-47.3% and 48.7%-48.2% over the nation’s Democratic vice president. Both remain entrenched in toss-up category. In analyzing samplings neither uses a margin of error, typically 3% to 4%.
Early in-person voting begins on Thursday of next week, Election Day is 25 days away, and absentee by mail voting has already begun. Friday was the last day for registration; however, at early in-person sites, residents can register.
North Carolina is one of seven consensus battleground states that collectively pivot 93 electoral college votes. Few prognosticators believe either candidate can win without the state or Pennsylvania, and perhaps need to take both.
Pennsylvania has 19 electoral college votes, North Carolina and Georgia 16 each, Michigan 15, Arizona 11, Wisconsin 10 and Nevada six.
In winning North Carolina twice, Trump has outperformed polling.
In 2020, Trump won the state 49.9%-48.6% over the ticket of Joe Biden and Harris. In the lead in, polls showed a toss-up or Biden ahead. In 2016, Trump won the state 49.8%-46.2% over the ticket of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine. Clinton won every poll but one from mid-September to late October.
Recent polls considered by 538 and RealClear include:
• The Hill/Emerson College; Trump 49%-48%; from Saturday to Tuesday of 1,000 likely voters; margin of error 3.0%.
• Wall Street Journal; tied at 47%; from Sept. 28-Tuesday of 600 registered voters; margin of error 4.0%.
• InsiderAdvantage; Trump 50%-49%; from Sept. 29-30 of 800 likely voters; margin of error 3.0%.
Project 538 also notes recent polls conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/McLaughlin & Associates, an internal sponsored by Donald Trump; ActiVote; and Redfield & Wilton Strategies sponsored by The Telegraph.
Republicans own an unmistakable 14-cycle pattern in presidential elections. Since Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson carried the state and won the presidency in 1964, only Democrats Jimmy Carter (1976) and Barack Obama (2008) have prevailed. Respectively four years later for each, they lost to Ronald Reagan and Mitt Romney.
