Increasingly and by the slimmest margin, flipping battleground North Carolina from Republican to Democrat in electoral college votes is remaining a significant challenge for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Four polls have been released since the incumbent administration’s No. 2 in charge touting “a new way forward” debated former President Donald Trump on Sept. 10. Four times, the results were a statistical tie within the margin of error and Trump and his “make America great again” chorus held a slight lead.
Trump clipped Harris 45.6%-45.3% in the Carolina Journal poll, conducted by Cygnal, released early Thursday. Six percent remain undecided, and the “definitely” category for each candidate was a Trump edge of 43.1%-38.7%.
Sampling was done Monday and Tuesday of 600 likely voters, and the margin of error is +/- 3.99%. Carolina Journal is a publication of the John Locke Foundation, a nonprofit research institute that envisions “liberty and limited, constitutional government” as cornerstones to society.
Trump outperforming polls would be a pattern repeated.
In 2020, he won the state 49.9%-48.6% when Harris was on the ticket of Joe Biden, the eventual electoral college winner. Polls showed a toss-up or Biden leading. In 2016, Trump won the state 49.8%-46.2% over the ticket of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine. Clinton won every poll but one from mid-September to late October.
Republicans also own an unmistakable 14-cycle pattern in presidential elections. Since Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson carried the state and won the presidency in 1964, only Democrats Jimmy Carter (1976) and Barack Obama (2008) have prevailed. Respectively four years later for each, they lost to Ronald Reagan and Mitt Romney.
“Both of these candidates are making frequent visits to the Old North State, and with a race this tight, I doubt we’ll see less of them as they attempt to score the state’s 16 electoral votes,” Carolina Journal publisher and John Locke Foundation CEO Donald Bryson said.
The seven consensus battleground states represent 93 electoral college votes. Pennsylvania has 19, North Carolina and Georgia 16 each, Michigan 15, Arizona 11, Wisconsin 10 and Nevada six.
Since last Thursday when Harris visited the state, her running mate Tim Walz – the Minnesota governor – has come to Asheville on Tuesday. J.D. Vance, the Ohio senator and Trump running mate, came impromptu to a college football game last Saturday, officially stumped in Raleigh on Wednesday, and Trump is scheduled for Wilmington on Saturday.
Election Day is 47 days away, early in-person voting is 28 days away, and absentee votes go into the mail Friday (overseas, military) and Tuesday.
