Newly released polling data shows that Vice President Kamala Harris has failed to secure the support among Black voters enjoyed by President Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton and former President Barack Obama.
A few days from Election Day, it may be too late.
Noble Predictive Insights released new polling this week which confirmed Harris’ struggles to garner support among Black voters.
The poll found that Harris leads Trump with Black voters 78% to 20% and with Hispanic voters 50% to 45%, far slimmer margins than Democrats have previously managed.
“The Republican Party is showing significant inroads with demographic groups that have historically favored Democrats by wide margins,” NPI said in its report. “Trump’s 45% support among Hispanic voters represents a notable 13-point improvement from 2020 (32%), while his 20% support among Black voters marks an 8-point shift from historical Republican performance with this demographic (12% support in 2020).”
NPI points out that in the key swing states, these demographics could easily sway the election. Hispanic voters make up about a third of the population in Arizona and Nevada. Black voters make up about a third of the population in Georgia, about 13% in Pennsylvania and about 14% in Michigan.
Noble’s poll is only one of several polls showing a similar trend: Black voters, and Black men in particular are not supporting Harris at the same level as they did Biden in 2020.
In fact, Biden, Clinton and Obama received about 90-95% support in their respective elections.
Harris leads nationally in the poll, but recent elections have shown Democrats can win the popular vote without winning the White House.
“We are firmly in the gray zone here. Any key group could shift enough to flip a state. Some groups could move enough to flip the popular vote,” David Byler, NPI Chief of Research, said in a statement. “In a race this close, either candidate could win the popular vote.”
With just a few days left until Election Day, and with millions of votes already cast, time is almost up for the candidates to make any impact before Tuesday.
“According to the poll, 37% of likely voters report that they have already cast their ballot and 63% have not voted yet. Harris leads by 22 points among those who have already voted (60% to 38%) while Trump leads by 10 points among those who have yet to vote (50% to 40%),” NPI said.
The poll surveyed about 700 likely general election voters. The margin of error was +/− 3.7%.
