Many national Democratic Party figures say that two closer than expected losses in deep-red Florida congressional districts show they’re making up ground on the GOP and could retake the U.S. House of Representatives in 2026.
As ESPN College Gameday personality and former Florida State defensive back Lee Corso likes to say, “Not so fast, my friend.”
Both Republican candidates, Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis in the 1st Congressional District and former state Sen. Randy Fine in the 6th Congressional District, won their races by more than 25,000 votes according to unofficial results despite facing well-funded challengers and very low turnout.
Both elections were needed to replace a pair of representatives that resigned to pursue positions in President Donald Trump’s administration. Their installation pushes the GOP to 220 seats, two above the minimal threshold for the party to retain a majority.
In the 6th Congressional District race, Democrat Josh Weil, a former educator, raised nearly $9.5 million, almost outspending Fine 10 to 1 (more than $987,000) according to data from the Federal Election Commission. Fine still won 110,764 votes or 56.7% of the unofficial total.
Weil finished with 72,304 votes or 42.28% of the unofficial count.
Democratic challenger Gay Valimont, a gun control advocate who ran against former U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz in the 1st Congressional District in 2024, raised nearly $6.5 million against more than $2.13 million for Patronis.
The Panama City Republican earned 97,335 votes or 56.91% of the total unofficial tally compared to 83,485 votes (42.71%) for Valimont.
One issue that might have made these races in districts that went heavily for Trump (more than 60% of the vote in 2024) was plenty of out-of-state funds that poured into the Democratic coffers.
Only 12.5% of Weil’s individual contributions (872) came from in-state donors. California individual donors represented 18% (1,264 entries) of the 6,987 individual donations.
Of Valimont’s 11,629 individual contributions, only 694 (5.96%) came from Florida.
Gaetz resigned after being nominated for U.S. attorney general by Trump, but dropped out after he realized he wouldn’t have the votes for confirmation in the Senate. Former Army Special Forces soldier and U.S. Rep. Mike Waltz resigned to become Trump’s national security advisor.
Turnout was light compared to 2024 and the 2022 races despite large amounts of money poured into races to fill out the terms of two members of Congress.
In the 1st District in 2024, 415,088 cast ballots compared to 171,021 in the special election, a race Gaetz won with 66% of the vote despite facing a House ethics probe.
In the 2022 midterms, 290,816 votes were recorded in the 1st Congressional District race, with 67.9% going to Gaetz.
The trend holds in the 6th Congressional District. In Waltz’s last race in 2024, he received 66.5% of the 427,474 votes cast, a far cry from the 195,475 cast in Tuesday’s special election.
In the 2022 midterms, 300,755 cast their ballots, with 75.3% of those going for Waltz.
