With three weeks before the election and ahead of their only debate Monday night, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz maintains a slight lead over his Democratic challenger, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas.
WFAA News in Dallas is hosting the debate at 7 p.m., which is being broadcast live statewide.
Multiple recent polls show Cruz leading by 2% to 4%, with some suggesting they are statistically tied. The latest University of Texas at Austin’s Texas Politics Project poll has Cruz’s lead closer to 8%. According to its poll tracker, the New York Times/Sienna College, ActiVote and Emerson College Polling/The Hill/Nexstar polls show Cruz holding a 4% lead. One poll, Morning Consult, shows Allred having a 1% lead.
A newly released Marist Poll has Cruz ahead by five points, 51% to 46%. The majority polled, more than 80%, said they strongly support their choice of candidate and have already made up their mind on who they plan to vote for.
The poll also has Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump leading his Democratic challenger, Vice President Kamala Harris, by seven points in Texas.
“Trump and Cruz are in the driver’s seat in their respective contests, although each has a single-digit lead over their opponent,” Dr. Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said. “Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Allred has an outside chance of scoring an upset because he is unknown at this point to many voters, and Cruz’s popularity is below 50%.”
Cruz, who is running for his third term, has a nearly even favorability and unfavorability rating, according to several polls.
The Texas Senate race is seen as a key race to help Republicans retake control of the chamber, with Democrats currently holding the slimmest of majorities.
The Wall Street Journal described the tax plans of the two presidential candidates, and congressional members of their respective parties as “a $6 trillion chasm.” Democrats in Congress, including Allred, and Harris, when she was in the U.S. Senate, and as vice president, support tax increases on businesses and wealthier individuals. Trump and Cruz want to decrease them.
Allred has largely come under fire for his claims to support border security when he consistently voted against it. Allred was also chastised by a Houston angel mom and others for claims he made about her instead of reaching out to her after her 12-year-old daughter was murdered by illegal foreign nationals. When asked if Allred reached out to any Texas angel family member, his campaign did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
Allred campaign ads in Texas repeatedly blame Cruz for women not having access to abortion in Texas. Women in television and online ads, claiming to not be paid actors, criticize Cruz for having to travel to another state to have an abortion and express outrage about the U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade and returning the issue of abortion to the states.
Texas abortion laws were passed by Texas legislatures and signed into law by Texas governors since 1854, according to the Texas State Law Library. The U.S. Senate has no jurisdiction over Texas law, legislatures or governors.
The 1973 U.S. Supreme Court ruling, Roe v. Wade, ruled that Texas’ abortion laws were unconstitutional and no longer enforceable. After the Supreme Court reversed its 1973 ruling in June 2022, Texas’ abortion statutes went into effect in August 2022. Several new laws also went into effect, including Texas’ 2021 bipartisan Heartbeat Act, which was upheld by the Texas Supreme Court.
In a new campaign ad, Allred claims, “I don’t want boys playing in girl’s sports” and that Cruz is “lying again” about his position.
The campaign ad claim conflicts with Allred’s voting record and policy statements.
Allred voted against the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2023 on April 20, 2023.
He also co-sponsored the Equality Act to redefine sex in Title IX of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, which includes protections for women and girls. The bill Allred cosponsored and voted for changed the definition of sex to include sexual orientation, among other measures, which women’s rights groups vehemently opposed, saying doing so stripped protections.
Allred claimed voting for the bill was to ensure members of the LGBTQ community weren’t discriminated against, including in housing and marriage. No Texas or federal law prohibits same-sex marriage; state and federal laws currently prohibit gender-based discrimination.
Redefining sex strips protections for women and girls, Cruz, Texas’ governor, attorney general, state legislature, and women’s rights advocates, argue.
After the Biden-Harris administration changed Title IX provisions through a federal rule change, Texas and 25 U.S. states sued to stop it from going into effect. In June, a federal judge in Texas ruled against it, blocking it from going into effect. Federal judges halted it from going into effect in 26 states, arguing it was illegal.
