No matter who voters elect to be the next president, the U.S. federal debt is expected to continue to grow.
The Committee for A Responsible Federal Budget, a nonprofit group, estimates that both Vice President Kamala Harris’ plan and former President Donald Trump’s plan would increase the debt. The group estimated that Trump’s plan would cost more than double Harris’ plan. It also noted areas of marked uncertainty in both candidates’ plans.
Harris’ plan would increase the debt by $3.50 trillion through 2035, while Trump’s plan would increase the debt by $7.50 trillion, according to the Committee for A Responsible Federal Budget’s analysis.
Trump and Harris have starkly different visions for the fiscal future of the U.S., but neither has laid out a plan to address growing U.S. debt and deficits. Both would add to the U.S. debt burden.
On the spending side, Harris has proposed extending Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act for workers earning less than $400,000; expanding the Child Tax Credit to $3,600 per child 5 years and younger and to $3,000 per child older than 5, from $2,000 today; expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit for individuals and couples in lower-income jobs who aren’t raising a child at home; increasing premium subsidies for health insurance under The Affordable Care Act, and providing an average of $25,000 in down payment assistance to qualified first-time homebuyers. Further, she would exempt tips and raise the minimum wage; expand funding for pre-Kindergarten and child care and establish National Paid Family and Medical leave, among other changes.
On the revenue side, Harris has proposed raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%; raising taxes on capital income; raising the Net Investment Income Tax/Medicare taxes and change international tax rules, among others.
The net result would increase in U.S. debt between $0 and $8.1 trillion, with the central estimate coming in at $3.5 trillion.
On the spending side, Trump has proposed extending and modifying the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act; exempt overtime from taxes; exempt tips from taxes; end taxation of Social Security benefits; lower the corporate tax rate to 15% for domestic manufacturers; strengthen and modernize the military; secure the border and deport unauthorized immigrants; enact housing reforms, including credits for first-time homebuyers.
On the revenue side, Trump would establish a baseline tariff and add other tariffs; reverse energy and environmental policies and expand production; reduce waste, fraud and abuse; and get rid of the U.S. Department of Education and support school choice.
Trump’s total ranges from $1.45 trillion at the low end and $15.15 trillion, with a central estimate of $7.5 trillion.
Committee for A Responsible Federal Budget said many uncertainties exist in the estimates.
“These findings involve a high degree of uncertainty, mostly due to questions about the details of how candidates’ policies are designed. We have therefore relied on candidate statements, campaign feedback, past budget proposals, and other sources for enough detail to credibly estimate the potential costs or savings and in most cases have produced wide-ranging estimates that reflect many different potential policy choices,” the group said in its analysis. “Furthermore, even fully detailed and previously analyzed policies have uncertain costs. This is especially true of policies that, if implemented, might significantly alter behavior.”
