As more polls flow in since the presidential debate, battleground North Carolina increases in likelihood to favor Republican former President Donald Trump over Democrat and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Sunday morning, the RealClear Polling edge for Trump was up to 1.4% with no margin of error factored in for polls it puts in the equation from Sept. 11 through Wednesday. Trump has most recently led polling by Fox News 50%-49% and Rasmussen Reports 49%-46%, and was deadlocked at 49% in a CNN poll.
Harris, the No. 2 in charge of the Biden administration, has led two polls RealClear uses – one by The Hill/Emerson 49%-48% and one by Bloomberg 50%-48%. She was also tied with Trump in the Marist poll, each at 49%.
Neither candidate has cleared the margin of error in a poll in the RealClear analysis, though Trump’s Rasmussen lead (3%) did equate. Consensus is the state remains a toss-up.
At Project 538, analysis of the state pegs Trump ahead 47.8%-47.4%. The CNN, Bloomberg, Fox News and Marist polls are the most recent into the equation.
The seven consensus battleground states represent 93 electoral college votes. Pennsylvania has 19, North Carolina and Georgia 16 each, Michigan 15, Arizona 11, Wisconsin 10 and Nevada six.
The news of even or ahead for Trump resonates because Republicans in general, and particularly the Floridian, generally outperform polling in North Carolina.
In 2020, Trump won the state 49.9%-48.6% when Harris was on the ticket of Joe Biden, the eventual electoral college winner. Polls showed a toss-up or Biden leading. In 2016, Trump won the state 49.8%-46.2% over the ticket of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine. Clinton won every poll but one from mid-September to late October.
Republicans also own an unmistakable 14-cycle pattern in presidential elections. Since Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson carried the state and won the presidency in 1964, only Democrats Jimmy Carter (1976) and Barack Obama (2008) have prevailed. Respectively four years later for each, they lost to Ronald Reagan and Mitt Romney.
Election Day is 37 days away, early in-person voting is 18 days away, and absentee-by-mail voting is underway.
