At least eight polls that started sampling after the presidential debate on Sept. 10 are in for battleground North Carolina, and Republican former President Donald Trump has trailed in only one.
He’s yet to fully eclipse the margins of error, thus remaining statistically tied with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.
Overall, with no margin of error, the RealClear Polling website puts him ahead 47.8%-47.2% for the Sept. 4-24 period, up slightly to 0.6% in a state where he significantly outperformed polling in 2016 and 2020.
At Project 538, the aggregate Trump edge is 47.8%-47.4%.
Latest poll to arrive was Thursday, when the Marist Poll returned a 49%-49% deadlock. The poll measured 1,348 likely voters last Thursday through Tuesday and offers margin of error at +/- 3.7%.
The poll also calculated the governor’s race, starting the polling the same day as a controversial report from CNN. Democrat Josh Stein, the attorney general, led Republican Mark Robinson, the lieutenant governor and object of the unflattering attention, 54%-43%.
The poll offers an outlier of top issues. Inflation was the top issue for 32%, preserving democracy 28%, immigration 14% and abortion 11%. Consensus since spring has listed some form of voter’s money – vocalized as inflation, economy, jobs, etc. – as the top choice, with immigration an abortion rounding out the top three.
The only poll led by Harris since the debate was by The Hill and Emerson College, where she led 49%-48% with +/- 3% margin of error among 1,000 likely voters.
Trump led New York Times/Siena, Victory Insights, Fabrizio/Anzalone, Carolina Journal/Cygnal, American Greatness/TIPP, and the Trafalgar Group.
In 2020, he won the state 49.9%-48.6% when Harris was on the ticket of Joe Biden, the eventual electoral college winner. Polls showed a toss-up or Biden leading. In 2016, Trump won the state 49.8%-46.2% over the ticket of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine. Clinton won every poll but one from mid-September to late October.
Republicans also own an unmistakable 14-cycle pattern in presidential elections. Since Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson carried the state and won the presidency in 1964, only Democrats Jimmy Carter (1976) and Barack Obama (2008) have prevailed. Respectively four years later for each, they lost to Ronald Reagan and Mitt Romney.
Election Day is 40 days away, early in-person voting starts in 21 days, and absentee voting by mail is underway.
