Support for Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump has grown among Hispanic and Black likely voters in Texas, according to a new poll.
Trump also is continuing to lead his Democratic challenger, Vice President Kamala Harris, according to the poll published by the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.
Trump holds a six-point lead over Harris, 50% to 44%.
“Harris and Trump are effectively tied among Hispanic likely voters (49% vs. 43%),” the report states. Trump’s “strength among Texas Hispanic likely voters continues to show a striking resilience,” TxHPF CEO Jason Villalba said.
The split represents a 10-point drop among Texas Hispanic likely voters who favored President Joe Biden in the 2020 election.
Trump has also gained support from likely Black voters in Texas. In 2024, he has support from 17% of Texas Black voters surveyed, up from 6% in 2020, according to the data.
Overall, among all likely Texas voters polled, 51% hold a favorable opinion of Trump compared to 44% who do of Harris.
According to the group’s April poll, Trump held a 12-point lead over Biden, 46% to 34%.
The top four issues that stand out as the most important to Texas likely voters are the economy, the future of democracy, immigration and border security, and reproductive rights, according to the report.
By religious affiliation, 75% of Hispanics identifying as born-again Christians say they are voting for Trump, followed by 32% of Hispanic Roman Catholics and 18% of non-religious Hispanics. The majority of Hispanics identifying as nonreligious, 69%, say they are voting for Harris, followed by 61% of self-identifying Hispanic Roman Catholics and 24% of born-again Christians.
In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz holds a three-point lead over his Democratic challenger U.S. Rep. Colin Allred.
Nearly one-third polled, 30%, said they don’t know enough about Allred to have an opinion about him. Among those who do, 41% hold a favorable opinion compared to 29% who don’t. Cruz, who’s running for his third term, holds higher favorability (47%) and unfavorability (50%) ratings than Allred.
Allred leads Cruz among Black and Hispanic voters by 61% and 11%, respectively.
The majority of Texas Hispanics identifying as born-again Christians, 65%, say they are voting for Cruz; 31% of Hispanic Roman Catholics and 13% of non-religious Hispanics also say they are voting for Cruz. The majority of non-religious Hispanics, 72%, 61% of Hispanic Roman Catholics, and 29% of Hispanic born again Christians say they are voting for Allred.
Survey demographics do not appear to be equally representative of likely Texas voters by race, gender, religion or political affiliation, according to the data. White likely voters account for 57% surveyed, Hispanics 24%, Blacks 13%, and other for 6%. The majority polled were women and between the ages of 45 and 64, according to the data. Republicans account for 49% of those surveyed, Democrats, 38%, and independents, 12%.
The survey does not appear to include members of faith communities outside of two Christian categories and nonreligious.
The poll was conducted among 1,200 likely Texas voters between Sept. 13-18 and has a margin of error of roughly 3%.
According to a recent University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll, Texas voters support Trump and Cruz over their Democratic challengers.
“Texas voters express more trust in Trump on the issues that have regularly topped the ‘most important problems facing the state’ items over the last two years of polling, including the current poll,” the UT/TPP poll states, including the economy, immigration and border security and crime, crime and public safety, foreign policy and infrastructure.
Allred has endorsed Harris.
Allred, whose campaign is depicting him as a moderate, voted nearly 100% of the time with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-CA, according to his voting record. He voted against oil and natural gas bills and against border security bills, critics argue would have benefitted Texas when two other Texas Democratic congressmen voted for them.
