As early voting gets underway Friday in Virginia, a new poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in a dead heat in the commonwealth.
A poll conducted by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington shows Harris leads Trump by 1%, with the vice president at 47% and the former president at 46%. The poll was conducted among 1,000 Virginians on Sept. 3-9, before the first and what appears to be the only debate between Harris and Trump.
The result is a statistical tie, given the margin of error is +/- 3.0%.
The Trump campaign and Virginia Republicans maintain the commonwealth is in play this election year despite Virginia not going for a GOP presidential candidate in 20 years.
“This new survey suggests Virginia should be getting a much closer look from both presidential campaigns,” said Stephen J. Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington and director of UMW’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies. “Virginia may deserve to be treated as a ‘swing state’ once again this year.”
The survey showed that the economy was the most important issue at 20%, followed closely by inflation and “threats to democracy,” both tied at 19%. Meanwhile, 13% said immigration was the most important issue, with abortion at 5%.
The poll noted that Republicans are more focused on economic matters, while Democrats appear to be more concerned about democracy and abortion.
Farnsworth noted that differing polls in Virginia either showed Harris way ahead of Trump or the two neck-and-neck. He warns against the candidates overlooking the commonwealth this election year.
“Given the range of findings in Virginia surveys over the past two months, the Harris and Trump campaigns may be paying far too little attention to the commonwealth,” Farnsworth said. “Virginians have a history of bouncing back and forth between the parties.”
Despite Virginia not being considered a consensus battleground state, the Trump campaign, along with Republicans such as Gov. Glenn Youngkin, would appear to agree with Farnsworth’s assessment.
During the 2020 presidential election, Biden beat Trump in Virginia by 10 points. In 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won Virginia by over five points with Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine as her running mate.
Despite Virginia’s 20-year blue streak, Youngkin appears to have put a stick in their spokes with his popularity. The survey gives the governor a 46% job approval versus President Joe Biden’s 37%.
In addition to the Harris and Trump virtual tie, the poll shows the race between Kaine and Republican challenger Hung Cao is tightening. In a head-to-head match-up among likely voters, Kaine leads 49%-43%.
