Former President Donald Trump remains statistically tied with Vice President Kamala Harris in only the second Georgia poll since last Tuesday’s presidential debate.
Yet, Republicans seem largely united behind Trump across the state compared to Democrats, who were less likely to be united behind Harris. This finding is contrary to the popular narrative that Trump is dividing the Republican Party.
This is all according to a poll from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the University of Georgia, which shows Trump with a margin of 2.5%.
Even though this is an increase from the 1.7% lead that the Trafalgar Group’s poll found, the other poll conducted in Georgia since the debate, it still is a very tight race.
The margin of error on the AJC poll is 3.1%, meaning there is essentially a statistical tie still between the candidates. AJC states that Trump’s lead is “not statistically significant.”
The poll was conducted from Monday through Sunday of the previous week, meaning it started just one day before the presidential debate.
Polls in the state have been that close since late July when Trump regularly polled much better than President Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential candidate at that time.
Since Harris announced her candidacy as Biden withdrew July 21, she has often led in Georgia polls, though less often in polls from the last two weeks.
When the 1,000 likely Georgia voters in the AJC poll were asked who they would vote for in the general election if it were held today, 46.9% said they would vote for Trump, while 44.4% said they would vote for Harris.
Notably, 7.2% of respondents said they were still undecided, while another 1.3% said they would vote for alternative, independent candidates.
While 94.4% of Republican voters said they would vote for Trump, only 86% of Democrats said they plan to vote for Harris.
Part of that statistical disparity is that the Democratic voters were more likely to vote for alternative, independent candidates. However, more concerning for Democrats, nearly 6% said they planned to vote for Trump.
This is compared to only 2.2% of Republicans who said they planned to vote for Harris.
Another concerning finding for Democrats is that their voters were also more likely to consider changing their vote before Election Day.
While 3.3% of Democratic voters said they are “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to change their minds, only 1.8% of Republican voters said they were.
Independent voters also seem largely locked in already, with only 4.5% saying they are “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to change their minds.
Unfortunately for Republicans, likely voters in Georgia are much more confident in Harris winning the election than Trump, even among Republican voters.
When asked who they thought would win the election, regardless of who they supported, 47.6% of likely voters said Harris, while 37% said Trump.
This included 14.4% of Republicans who believe that Harris will win.
Democrats widely approve of Harris’ job as vice president and Biden’s job as president, yet a large percentage of them believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction. Harris’ campaign bus proclaims, “A new way forward,” a contrast for an incumbent, and a contrast from Biden’s “job to finish” mantra.
While only 2.9% of Republicans said the nation is heading in the right direction, 32.3% of Democrats believe it is heading in the wrong direction.
This does not bode well for Democrats, especially in light of inflation and the cost of living remaining the most influential issues for voters in Georgia. Coming in second at 17.7% is “preserving democracy,” followed by “economy and jobs” at 15.2%.
