With the presidential election now completed, the latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer shows American farmers’ sentiments about the industry are now at a level that has not been seen since May 2021.
The latest report showed the overall index at 145. That was a 30-point increase from October and a 57-point swing from September, when the index was at its lowest since March 2016.
The barometer is based on a survey of farmers, which was taken one week after the election won by President-elect Donald Trump. That result is making farmers feel more optimistic about the impact federal environmental regulations will have on their operations.
Of those polled last month, 55% said they expect less restrictive measures in the next five years, compared to just 9% believing the rules will become more stringent. The October report showed that 41% of farmers polled expressed concerns about more burdensome regulations, while only 10% of farmers thought they would be more relaxed.
In addition, farmers are less worried now about possible tax increases than they were four years ago. Of those polled last month, only 36% thought income rates would increase for farmers over the next five years, while 55% believe they will remain around the same as they are now. In December 2020, after President Biden won the election, 74% feared higher taxes, compared to 25% expecting them to stay level.
While more farmers believe their future outlook will be rosier, that’s not to say they do not have any concerns. When asked about how a trade war would affect agricultural exports, 42% of farmers responded by saying it would likely (27%) or very likely (15%) lead to fewer U.S. products being exported. Only 26% believed a trade decline would be unlikely (17%) or very unlikely (9%).
Since being called the winner last month, Trump has threatened to increase tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China in hopes of stopping fentanyl shipments from entering the United States and stemming the influx of illegal immigrants entering from America’s northern and southern borders.
Should those tariffs take effect, Indiana farmers could be among those most affected.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service, Indiana was the nation’s seventh largest agricultural exporter in 2022, with more than $7.4 billion in commodities shipped abroad. Soybeans were the top export, with a value of nearly $2.65 billion, followed by corn, which was worth about $1.35 billion.
