A new national poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead over former President Donald Trump with just days before the Nov. 5 presidential election.
Harris (47%) leads Trump (45%) in the race to the White House. When voters who selected “not sure” were pushed to make a choice, Harris’ lead grew by 1 point, leading Trump 49% to 46%, according a national poll of record from Noble Predictive Insights.
The poll, conducted from Oct. 23–27, surveyed 707 likely general election voters in the U.S. It had a margin of error of ±3.7%.
Trump and Harris have high party unity at statistically similar levels, but Harris benefits from a 5-point lead among independents, 45% to 40%. This lead suggests a slight edge for Democrats, though such a narrow margin indicates a potential for a late surge in Republican support.
Education is another big factor in the race. Among likely voters with a college degree, Harris has a 19-point advantage over Trump. Among likely voters without a college degree, Trump has a 10-point lead.
“This educated demographic is critical for Harris, as higher turnout rates among college graduates may strengthen her position in battleground states,” according to the pollsters.
Harris has an edge with swing voters such as independents (+5) and Hispanics (+5), which the pollsters said suggests “a highly competitive popular vote.”
“These voters have historically played a decisive role in close races, and with a small but important tilt toward Harris, these voters could be the deciding factor in a tight electoral outcome,” NPI said in its report.
“We are firmly in the gray zone here. Any key group could shift enough to flip a state,” NPI’s David Byler said. “Some groups could move enough to flip the popular vote. In a race this close, either candidate could win the popular vote.”
A Morning Consult poll released Tuesday showed Harris leads Trump by 3 points among likely voters (50% to 47%). Taking into account the survey’s margin of sampling error of 1 percentage point, her lead could be as narrow as 49% to 48%, or as wide as 51% to 46%.
Polling guru Nate Sliver said the race was tight.
“The forecast is holding steady and the race is well within toss-up range,” he wrote in the Silver Bulletin. “Harris leads by 1.2 points in our national polling average, and Donald Trump has a 54% chance of winning the Electoral College.”
